Doomsday Scenario 2013

In keeping with my Realist (not necessarily Pessimist) view of things, let me predict what might happen in the U.S. in the near future - very possibly in or by 2014. First, the U.S. Federal Government will run up an unimaginably huge deficit, its credit rating will plummet, and the dollar will become nearly worthless. The government will then, of course, be unable to meet its obligations as far as pensions and Social Security payments. China, India, and Europe will come to the rescue by buying American companies, industries, and businesses and hiring Americans to run them and work in them. The U.S. will have to sell U.S. territory as well in order to survive. The American Southwest will again become part of Mexico. As a result of several natural catastrophes, American food production will shrink to well below minimal subsistence levels. Millions will starve. Violence, political chaos, and social desperation will prevail in every American city. Millions will die from simple diseases. In return for total disarmament, Russia will help out with the food shortages. America's economic and military presence all over the globe will be scaled back to zero. This will plunge the entire world into a new dark ages for a short while. Europe will then take control of all Middle Eastern countries and will become dominant among world nations once again. Prosperity will have disappeared but the world will have peace and security. I might, of course, be way off the mark. Pay no attention to me. 

One Event

A single event, just as a single man, can trigger historical upheavals, even if the event turns out to be a failure. Countless times throughout history, a hundred protesting people have turned into thousands then hundreds of thousands. If the event fires up the imagination, then things begin to sort of shape themselves until a movement is born and suddenly, a revolution is in full swing, whether for good or evil.  Men tend to make mistakes often so things usually turn out badly, regardless of the original intention. Such is life. Just don't ask me why. I have no clue.

US Debt

I think the U.S. debt is so huge it will take forty years to pay off, providing there are no new expenditures. It might even take longer. Politicians always tell us what we want to hear. Their number one job is to keep their job. It is an ego trip they are on. They are only human after all.

Wall Street Journal

I saw an ad on this page for the Wall Street Journal and I asked myself why they would put one of their ads here. We have nothing in common. Really. I don't put ads on their page. I suppose there's nothing I can do about it. Maybe I'll just listen to some salsa music - they don't have salsa at the Wall Street Journal site.

Hank Paulson interview

Coffee Club Newsletter ©
Volume 18, No. 48 - December 7, 2008

Any similarity to persons actually living or events actually happening is coincidental.

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Hank Paulson?
HP: Yes sir, and you must be Mr. Quan?
TR: No, I’m with the Coffee Club Newsletter.
HP: Where’s Mr. Quan?
TR: I don’t know.
HP: So, why are you here in his place?
TR: I’m not taking his place – I’m here to do an interview with you.
HP: Oh, you’re that other guy. Do you care at all about global warming?
TR: May I come in?
HP: Only if you promise we’ll discuss climate change and the environment.
TR: We can discuss whatever you want to discuss.
HP: Step right this way.
TR: Wow, this looks like a greenhouse.
HP: It is.
TR: I’ve never seen so many indoor plants before.
HP: Wait ‘til you see the snakes.
TR: Snakes? How many snakes?
HP: Twenty six, but they are not all here – some we keep in the bedrooms.
TR: Oh.
HP: I know them all by name.
TR: One for each letter of the alphabet.
HP: How did you guess?
TR: I’m just good at guessing. How do you tell them apart?
HP: They’ve been in the family a number of years – after a while you just recognize them. It’s like telling your dollar bills apart. They’re all the same but they’re all different. There comes Chrimata now from under that fern.
TR: Chrimata?
HP: It’s the Greek word for “money.”
TR: I should have guessed.
HP: And Fiduciary is right behind her. Isn’t he cute?
TR: To me, they’re just snakes.
HP: You have a lot to learn. Let’s sit down in my study.
TR: Can I have a Corona Light?
HP: Sure. That’s my favorite beer - another lucky guess?
TR: No. I just like the way it tastes. I’m glad you have it in the house – even Buckingham Palace doesn’t stock it.
HP: You’ve been there?
TR: I interviewed the Queen.
HP: Sure you did.
TR: I don’t tell lies.
HP: You must be the only one on the planet.
TR: No, my father too.
HP: Really? And where might he be from?
TR: Austria, but he’s in the Himalayas right now.
HP: …doing?
TR: Collecting bark from an old tree.
HP: Is he a researcher, an environmental scientist?
TR: No, he needs it to stay alive.
HP: Is he ill?
TR: Not at all. He’s just really old. He will soon be 2000.
HP: 2000 years old?
TR: Yes.
HP: You know, I’ve been around a lot of bankers and finance people and business people almost all my life…
TR: Yes, I know.
HP: …I have learned to read them pretty well – perfectly, in fact. Even by the slightest inflection in their speech – I can tell when they’re trying to sell me the Brooklyn Bridge. Your story sounds very convincing – you’re either the world’s best liar or you’re telling me the absolute truth.
TR: Well, to me, it doesn’t matter at all what you think about me.
HP: You must not need any tips on the stock market.
TR: I just do interviews and take pictures whenever my camera is working.
HP: I can see you’re a simple man. You’re good for the environment.
TR: May I ask you about the financial collapse?
HP: Being that you’re a true environmentalist, you may ask me whatever you like.
TR: Thank you. My readers would like to know if the bailout money will really work to turn the economy around.
HP: No, of course it won’t. I had to find a way to protect my Asian friends from any defaults. That’s what that was about, not anything else. I know I’ve been criticized for being close to Wall Street, but everyone is close to something, no?
TR: Weren’t you partly responsible for the elimination of the net capital rule in 2004 - the thing that led to the credit crisis?
HP: Sure, sure, but let me tell you what that was about. When I was in the private sector, I lobbied hard against being overly regulated by the government. That’s all true. My mistake was in thinking that everybody in the investment business, when granted more freedom by the Feds, would act responsibly. Instead, they acted like thugs. They really let me down. I was in charge at Goldman Sachs and we stayed clear of the greediness and all those sham securities. That’s why it’s the only firm that survived. All those people who are now criticizing me don’t have a clue.
TR: May I print that?
HP: No, not all of it.
TR: Ok. What about John Ehrlichman?
HP: Who is he?
TR: He used to be your boss under Nixon?
HP: Oh, yes, I forgot. Some things just never go away, do they?
TR: You were almost caught up in Watergate.
HP: That was in 1972 – almost four decades ago. I was just a kid. John Dean cautioned me to keep away from the whole mess and I resented him for it because I wanted to get in on the action. He was a real snake.
TR: But, he saved your reputation.
HP: Without meaning to.
TR: Didn’t you later give him a job as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs?
HP: No. I simply suggested to him that he go into banking – it was a perfect fit. The industry is full of weasels and snitches, you know.
TR: Maybe you’ve had too much beer?
HP: Don’t you want another Corona?
TR: I’m beginning to hear noises in my ears.
HP: Oh, don’t worry. They’re coming from my playroom next door. I have a collection of over a hundred ticker tape machines in there – the kind that every stock broker used to have. At precisely the same time every day, they start whirring away. I love those old machines. They were the internet of the old, old days.
TR: I remember them, of course. You know them all by name?
HP: No.
TR: When did you become concerned about the environment?
HP: When I learned that we were about to run out of oil. The next big money makers will be wind power generation and solar energy.
TR: What do you think is the ultimate power source?
HP: Washington politics.
TR: What about the people?
HP: If I’ve learned anything in the last fifty years, it’s that if you give people something to eat and something to talk about, they’re happy. 98 percent of them don’t even know who I am.
TR: But what about unemployment?
HP: Well, that won’t really become a problem unless it hits 50 percent. We may see a couple of riots here and there but I have set aside 997 billion for that worst-case scenario. Be that as it may, my private jet is on standby to take me and my family to Brazil on a moment’s notice.
TR: Do you have another residence there?
HP: Well, I really doubt that the Coffee Club would be interested in that but, for the record; we’ll just be doing a little environmental research near Rio. Maybe I’ll get lucky and find a new species. I’m going to grab another beer and lie down, if you don’t mind.
TR: Thank you Mr. Paulson.
HP: Thank you, Mr. Quan.

Bernie Madoff interview

Coffee Club Newsletter ©
Volume 18, No. 49 - December 17, 2008

Any similarity to persons actually living or events actually happening is coincidental.

TR: Good afternoon. Are you Bernard L. Madoff?
BM: Yes, but you don’t have to be so formal – call me Bernie, please.
TR: Yes sir. May I come in?
BM: Sure. Make yourself comfortable. I’ve been expecting you.
TR: It smells like apple cider in here.
BM: I hope you find it pleasant my friend.
TR: Yes, very pleasant.
BM: I would offer you some but I’m afraid we’ve run out of Styrofoam cups.
TR: Why not use a real cup?
BM: My wife won’t let me.
TR: Well, I drink beer anyway.
BM: Beer is bad for you.
TR: Not so far.
BM: Why do you say that?
TR: I’ve been drinking beer since 1798 and have not been badly affected.
BM: Is that so?
TR: Yes sir. I only stay away from dark ale.
BM: That’s very amusing although a little perplexing too because I know you can’t be conning me – I would be able to tell, you know. You don’t look more than forty years old.
TR: I suspect that’s probably true. You are a very shrewd and wise man.
BM: I know how men think and what they crave the most.
TR: You would have made a good psychologist.
BM: On the contrary – I think I would have made a good politician. A psychologist is easily fooled. A politician only pretends to be fooled – a politician is the greatest deceiver of all. He is the master of the ancient art of manipulation.
TR: Mr. Bloomberg might not appreciate your saying that about him.
BM: I can always say I was misquoted.
TR: But my readers know I’m very careful.
BM: Sure, but he’s not one of your readers. What are people saying about me anyway?
TR: That you’re a schemer, a deceiver, a thief, a fool, a fixer, a flake, and a fraud.
BM: Well, that’s not too bad though I don’t really care what people think. I only care about what my own family thinks.
TR: They are the ones who said it. It’s in The New York Times.
BM: How can they be so ungrateful?
TR: The New York Times?
BM: No, my sons.
TR: …Ruth and your sister and your niece, too.
BM: Well, shame on them for kicking a man when he’s down - a poor elderly man.
TR: Do you think you’ll end up in prison?
BM: You mean, die in prison? Of course not. What do you think lawyers are for? By the time we get done with all the appeals, I’ll be ninety five. I just hope they can save my licenses. I might go work at Merrill Lynch or Bear Stearns or Lehman - as a partner, of course.
TR: They no longer exist.
BM: What are you saying - since when?
TR: About four months ago.
BM: Are you serious? What is this world coming to?
TR: I think they went bankrupt.
BM: I remember hearing something about it. You know, I haven’t read much in the last three years – not even the financial papers. I simply haven’t had the time.
TR: What have you been doing?
BM: Doing? Doing a lot of bookkeeping, that’s what I’ve been doing.
TR: Didn’t you have people doing that for you?
BM: They couldn’t be trusted with the Ascot accounts.
TR: A lot of your friends are angry with you.
BM: How come they weren’t mad at me when I was making them a ton of money? Do they expect me to apologize?
TR: They want their money back.
BM: Sure, sure, everybody does. Don’t they realize that asking for their money back is what caused this whole enterprise to collapse in the first place? It was like a run on the bank. I warned them. Don’t cash out, don’t cash out – wait for a scheduled distribution. Be patient. Instead, it was like a stampede of wildebeest.
TR: Didn’t you at least have a few billion left?
BM: Sure I did, but I had to pay as many people as I could before word got out that I was insolvent.
TR: Who?
BM: My closest friends.
TR: Like who?
BM: Let’s just say Bloomberg, Trump, Schumer, and Kennedy got taken care of.
TR: …Because you didn’t want to cross them or what?
BM: No, I didn’t. They’re a mean bunch – more cold-blooded and ruthless than I am, especially that Caroline girl.
TR: What about Clinton?
BM: The Clintons took their money out two months ago - even Chelsea.
TR: Maybe they knew something….
BM: Of course they knew – everybody knew. Nobody’s that dumb.
TR: And the SEC auditors?
BM: They were somewhat incompetent, but I also think they had their doubts - you know how the government is – if you have enough clout, you have nothing to fear from them. I just told them that if they wrote me up I would go above their heads. They wrote their reports full of imprecise and equivocating double talk – you know, maybe this and perhaps that; it appears that and it seems like – really vague stuff, nothing you could sink your teeth into. Naturally, the upper guys let me off the hook every time. There was a lot of gray in those reports. I also let some of the SEC higher ups invest with me.
TR: Really?
BM: Sure. Would I lie about something like that?
TR: How did you fool the sophisticated investors and hedge fund managers?
BM: Easy.
TR: How?
BM: Look, let me give you an example. I’ve been around financial jargon all my life. I know how people react to it. When they don’t understand it, they get frustrated and would rather be gored by a bull than be made to feel dumb. I will give you an introduction to my investment strategy and you tell me when to stop.
TR: Ok.
BM: Typically, a position in an Ascot Partners account will consist of the ownership of 30 to 35 S&P 100 stocks, most of them correlated to that index, the sale of out-of-the-money calls on the index, and the purchase of out-of-the-money puts on the index. The sale of the calls is designed to increase the rate of return, while allowing upward movement of the stock portfolio to the strike price of the calls. The puts, funded in large part by the sale of the calls, limit the portfolio's downside or risk ratio. A simple split-strike trade involves buying a stock at price X, selling a call option with a price Y which is above X, and purchasing a put option with a strike price Z which is below X. If the price of the stock is above Y at expiration, the stock will be called away and the investor receives Y for the stock. If the price is below Z at expiration, the put can be exercised and Z received in cash. This effectively caps the maximum gain….
TR: Stop. Please.
BM: I could go on like that for hours.
TR: I believe you.
BM: So the idiots would just say to me: “Bernie, don’t bother to explain all this to us, we trust you, you’re a genius, just send us any gains.”
TR: Do you have any words of advice for my eight readers?
BM: Tell them they’re lucky to be poor.
TR: Thank you Bernie.
BM: Thank you my friend and sorry about the cider.